At Winkworth, we are closely monitoring shifts in confidence and activity as 2026 gathers pace.
After a prolonged period of caution — shaped by interest rate volatility, political change and tax reform — the first indicators of the year suggest the wider housing market may be beginning to stabilise.
Fresh data from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) points to what it describes as “tentative signs” that the UK residential market could be turning a corner.
While conditions remain subdued, the tone is notably less downbeat than it was just a few months ago.
Buyer Demand: Still Soft, But Improving
Survey metrics for buyer enquiries and agreed sales remain in negative territory — but crucially, they are becoming less negative.
In January:
- The balance of surveyors reporting rising buyer enquiries improved compared with late 2025.
- Agreed sales recorded their least negative reading since mid-2025.
This suggests that although the market is not yet in expansion mode, the pace of contraction is easing — often a precursor to recovery.
At Winkworth, we’ve observed similar trends in Prime Central London: enquiry levels are stabilising and serious buyers are re-engaging, particularly where pricing reflects current realities.
Prices Showing Signs of Stabilisation
Nationally, house price momentum remains weak, but the rate of decline has moderated steadily over recent months.
RICS’ three-month price metric improved again in January, reinforcing the view that price falls may be nearing their trough. Analysts describe this as a potential turning point rather than a rebound — a distinction that is important for both buyers and sellers.
Regionally, divergence remains:
- Scotland and Northern Ireland continue to outperform.
- The North West and North of England show upward trends.
- London and the South East remain more subdued, reflecting affordability pressures — though even here, conditions have improved modestly.
For Prime Central London, this aligns with what we are seeing: stabilisation rather than surge.
Stronger 12-Month Outlook
Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of the survey lies in forward expectations.
- A net balance of surveyors expect transaction volumes to rise over the next 12 months — the strongest reading in over a year.
- Price expectations over the same period are also the most positive since early 2025.
Short-term caution remains, but medium-term confidence is clearly building.
As RICS Chief Economist Simon Rubinsohn notes, recovery is likely to be gradual and heavily dependent on mortgage rates and macroeconomic confidence. Nonetheless, sentiment is moving in a constructive direction.
What This Means for Prime Central London
For Prime Central London specifically, recovery will not mirror the mainstream market.
PCL remains more sensitive to:
- • Global economic factors
- • International capital flows
- • Fiscal policy shifts
- • Wealth taxation considerations
However, stabilisation nationally often precedes greater confidence at the top end — particularly once interest rate expectations settle and policy uncertainty diminishes.
Encouragingly, improving clarity around taxation and fewer anticipated fiscal surprises are already helping rebuild buyer confidence in prime markets.
Lettings Market Still Tight
The RICS survey also noted that tenant demand edged higher at the start of the year, while landlord supply remains constrained. This dynamic is expected to keep rental prices firm in the near term.
For investors weighing buy-to-let opportunities in Prime Central London, this underlines the importance of viewing sales and lettings markets together — especially where yield resilience complements longer-term capital positioning.
Winkworth’s View for 2026
Our assessment remains measured but increasingly constructive:
- The correction phase appears to be easing
- Sentiment is improving gradually
- Transaction momentum is building, not surging
- 2026 is shaping up to be a year of stabilisation and selective opportunity
For sellers, realistic pricing remains critical — but conditions are improving.
For buyers, the current market still offers negotiation leverage alongside longer-term upside potential.
Considering Your Next Move?
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in Prime Central London, our experienced Winkworth teams can provide:
- A comprehensive market appraisal
- Strategic advice on timing and positioning
- Insight into active and off-market opportunities
Contact your local Winkworth office today to discuss how emerging market recovery could shape your 2026 property strategy.
