After a turbulent couple of years marked by rising interest rates and political uncertainty, signs are emerging that Prime London’s sales market may be approaching a turning point.
New figures from LonRes suggest that values are beginning to stabilise and demand is starting to return—particularly at the very top end of the market—offering a cautiously optimistic outlook for the second half of 2025.
Are Values Bottoming Out?
Average prices across Prime Central London edged up slightly between May and June, leaving annual growth almost flat at -0.2% but still 1.7% higher than the pre-pandemic average from 2017– 2019. The average discount to asking price fell to 8.2%, while 41.5% of sold homes had previously been reduced—both the strongest metrics recorded so far this year.
These indicators suggest that while vendors continue to adjust pricing, values are holding firm and may have found a floor.
Under Offer Activity Points to Recovery
While overall transactions in June were still 27.1% down year-on-year—and 18.4% below the pre pandemic average—the number of homes going under offer rose 9% compared to the same month in 2024. Compared with the 2017–2019 baseline, under offers were up a notable 22.7%. This rise in pipeline activity could translate into improved transaction figures in the coming months.
Stock Levels on the Rise
Supply continues to build across Prime London. New instructions in June were up 19% year-on year and 20.1% above the pre-pandemic average. As a result, available stock at the end of the month was 13.3% higher than June 2024 and 40.2% higher than five years ago.
However, price reductions remain a notable theme, with a 50.6% rise in June compared to the same month last year—indicating that while buyers are returning, they remain price sensitive.
First Half 2025 Review
Looking at the year to date:
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Transactions were down 6% vs. H1 2024, but up 1% on the 2017–2019 average.
- Under offers rose 1% annually and 18% compared to the pre-pandemic period.
- New instructions climbed 14.2% year-on-year and 26.3% over the longer-term average.
- Price reductions were the standout metric, up 42.7% annually and 54.1% on the five-year benchmark.
Top-End Resilience
In the £5mn+ market, June transactions were down 7.7% compared to last year, but new instructions rose by 42.9%, continuing the upward trend in stock levels.
Over the first half of the year, the number of £5mn+ transactions fell by 10.5% compared to 2024— but activity still remains 27.9% above the 2017–2019 average, making this segment the most robust across the market. Notably, LonRes has observed rising numbers of deals agreed over £10mn, indicating ongoing strength at the super-prime level.
Looking Ahead
While activity in Q2 2025 was subdued, the recent uptick in under offer numbers and stabilising values suggest a cautious optimism is returning to the market. Buyer sentiment remains sensitive to global and domestic developments, but with interest rates softening and supply rising, Prime London may be poised for a steadier second half of the year.
At Winkworth, we continue to see motivated buyers and realistic sellers engaging in meaningful negotiations. If you're considering a sale or purchase in Prime London, our expert teams are on hand to offer tailored advice and market-leading insight.
Source: PrimeResi and LonRes
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