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Predicting the Next Year

Welcome to 2014, before the market comes fully back to life it is worth thinking a little about how events turned out in 2013 and what we are thinking or predicting will happen in the coming year. The figures just released by The Council of Mortgage Lenders shows that gross mortgage lending was an estimated £17 Billion in November 2013, 30% higher than the £13 Billion lent in November2012. The latest Land Registry data available from October shows that property prices in London outperformed the rest of the country with an annual rise of 8.7%, and prices in the South East showed the second highest annual gain with a rise of 4.0%. In its annual housing market report published in December, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has predicted that the average UK House price will rise 8% this year with London expected to have double digit growth with a rise of 11%. The National and London figures stated above cover too large a spectrum and relate to deals agreed months before it is possible for themto be of any real use, apart from confirming general trends. The Central and West End Markets have out-performed these figures but are diluted by the wider London market that is playing catch-up. All property sales in whatever area of London are connected in some way to each other. Super-high prices in Covent Garden, will directly affect prices in Holborn,Soho,Bloomsbury and the City. Sometime later this will work out to the inner suburbs and eventually the outer suburbs, this how it has always worked in London. Broadly speaking, we saw rises of about 15 to 20 per cent incentral Londonin 2013 which is much higher than in London generally. This is not sustainable in the long run, but as I used to say in the city “the trend is your friend”. My prediction for the local market for this year is that we will see a continued, but more subdued rise of about 5% as the year goes on. No crystal ball, no guarantees, just intuition and experience. If you want to discuss any aspect of the market or talk about your property or just chew the fat then please do get in touch on 0207 405 1288.

Welcome to 2014, before the market comes fully back to life it is worth thinking a little about how events turned out in 2013 and what we are thinking or predicting will happen in the coming year. The figures just released by The Council of Mortgage Lenders shows that gross mortgage lending was an estimated £17 Billion in November 2013, 30% higher than the £13 Billion lent in November2012. The latest Land Registry data available from October shows that property prices in London outperformed the rest of the country with an annual rise of 8.7%, and prices in the South East showed the second highest annual gain with a rise of 4.0%. In its annual housing market report published in December, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has predicted that the average UK House price will rise 8% this year with London expected to have double digit growth with a rise of 11%. The National and London figures stated above cover too large a spectrum and relate to deals agreed months before it is possible for themto be of any real use, apart from confirming general trends. The Central and West End Markets have out-performed these figures but are diluted by the wider London market that is playing catch-up. All property sales in whatever area of London are connected in some way to each other. Super-high prices in Covent Garden, will directly affect prices in Holborn,Soho,Bloomsbury and the City. Sometime later this will work out to the inner suburbs and eventually the outer suburbs, this how it has always worked in London. Broadly speaking, we saw rises of about 15 to 20 per cent incentral Londonin 2013 which is much higher than in London generally. This is not sustainable in the long run, but as I used to say in the city “the trend is your friend”. My prediction for the local market for this year is that we will see a continued, but more subdued rise of about 5% as the year goes on. No crystal ball, no guarantees, just intuition and experience.

If you want to discuss any aspect of the market or talk about your property or just chew the fat then please do get in touch on 0207 405 1288.

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